Unfortunately, it's a moot point since this area of disturbance (in the southern Caribbean near the coast of Central America and Columbia at 76W/19N) is moving west and has strong convection and t-storms, but no organization.
Cheers,
LI Phil
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"