system off the coast here is a go.. pretty sure of that. d2.0 on its last ssd take. it has the convective organization it needs to get going now. too bad i'm off on vacation for the rest of the week. thats what i call the andrew contingency.. andrew being the first and a long series of storms that tend to form when i'm not around to watch.
two camps of thought on 99L/future cristobal.. the avn horde that cries out phase, recurve! and the nogaps and euro types that dont toss it out to sea and keep it loitering offshore until the ridge builds back. i've got mixed feelings. avn has been right a lot in recent times when it has wanted to take systems out.. while i can certainly see how northeast troughs are a lot less monstrous than in years past. also there's the asian teleconnection... storms have been running mostly west over there, which teleconnects to west over here (still in the 6-10 day period after fengshen).
all i can say is watch it closely. the models are doing their usual things, my only question is: will the next storm do the usual thing.
bertha is on the wane. it has tracked too far inland for it to maintain much strength when it finally does turn west. so far it has tracked mostly NW. offshore convection is still strong though. was only a marginal tropical storm for a few hours. so much for big bertha.
the central atlantic is looking more appealing than yesterday in terms of convective activity, but still just broad/weak general low pressure. the next amplification on the westerlies will likely stir the convection up more, so it is an area to keep in mind.. though not for a threat. only potential threat at this point is off the south carolina coast.
betcha theyll recon 99L this afternoon and take it up a notch.
HF 1511z05august
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