Alex is slowly getting more organized. The center is still fairly broad and mesoscale vortexes (short-lived mini-centers) can be seen whipping around the periphery of the sheared CDO feature east of the Georgia coastline. Alex is currently hanging out on a limb of the atlantic ridge, a narrow height axis is oriented Sw-Ne to the west and north of the system. Some outflow aloft is apparent with Alex as well, and it is making a bulge on the ridge keeping the storm stuck off Georgia today.
When the storm begins to move it will cross under and possibly travel along this narrow ridge and find favorable conditions for strengthening. The SHIPS intensity model is calling for more strengthening than the official forecast.
Afternoon visible of Alex with broad center partially exposed
The National Hurricane Center track carries Alex north and northeastward just off the coast of South Carolina, over Cape Fear and Carteret County, North Carolina, and then very close to Cape Hatteras.
Any minor deviation from this path could either result in the storm never making landfall, or a track over the coastal counties of the Carolinas. Specifically, deviation to the left would result in tropical storm conditions outside of the current warning area, so people in the watch area and perhaps as far down the coast as Savannah should keep this in mind.
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Alex menacing the coastal southeast
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