Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms From TD3

I got a research idea for Kevin. How do seasons that have had three minimal (tropical, cat-1) storms by August 6th compare?

I agree Shawn. At least things are interesting. I've got a few ideas that I want to see how they pan out.

Bertha - definitely heading toward the Gulf. The front isn't far behind and is very strong. Shear should eventually catch Bertha unless she gets pretty far south. Over the last few days, Bertha has been firing up late at night and peaking by noon. Does she have it in her to continue this trend for 2-3 more days? And will Bertha fire up some severe weather in response to the front at some point tonight or tomorrow? Then finally, where does the front stall (if it doesn't split) in relation to Bertha down the road? Is the low level moisture waiting to flare up in the wake of the front - say in South Texas or down in the BoC late this weekend? Or does she become a rainmaker for lower texas and the deserts of Mexico?

Cristobal - He's an asymetrical storm with an odd wind field. The lowest pressure (999mb and falling according to Accuweather's 7:30 hurricane update) is exposed and to the north of the main convection. If a new mid or low level center doesn't form further south with the convection, it's probably going to head east then out to sea as the NHC has been saying. However, if it continues to move south or if a new llc forms further s-sw, then it's anyone's guess. This could hit the peninsual and cross into the gulf. It could stay trapped in a weak flow. Tough call. The key is also the push of the cold front. If the push is strongest to the south, christobal spins fish. If the push is stronger to the southeast, then it's trapped or heading towards the east coast of Florida.

This all should make for an interesting tomorrow. We've got a nice little string of some homegrown stuff going on.

Steve

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