TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

2 Systems=2 landfalls, most likely will happen, but most likely not in the same area. First with bonnie, recon continues to show a tight compact system and dry air to its west. A trough coming down thru Texas and La will begin to nudge the system in maybe a small loop to the N then ENE to back NE as it starts to move quicker Thursday. I dont expect Bonnie to go more W then.2 or 3 this afternoon then start to turn later tonight into weds. Winds with her now are near 60mph. Again this could just as well weaken since this is a very small system. I dont think that will happen as the exhaust to the ne from Bonnie will provide nice outlfow on her eastern flank. The trough will cause the NE general motion and when a system moves with the direction of the upper winds ,generally it will not inhibit strengthning. Its like walking thru a stream. Bonnie will be walking though with the stream current. I think this could be close to or just above hurricane strength. Hardest forcast right now is where. It could be from Cedar Key (yes that far east) to Mobile. The next bigger trough later in the week into the weekend will have a affect of Charley.
Charley looks awesome with a almost perfect outflow pattern over the last 12-24 hours. The TS are near the center and pressure continues to slowly fall as forcasted. A more gradual strengthning process should start Thursday night with a slowing in speed. The speed should actually start slowing down in speed on weds evening. Now the major topic on this isnt really the strength as we all see this from 80mph to as high as 125mph by the weekend. Points are of landfalls. Right now its a wait and see on where Charley will be to the strong trough over the eastern U.S. Friday thru the weekend. As of 12pm eastern right now I disagree with the placement of the position of Charley already. I have him at 14.4N and 69.1 W. The center is clearly on the NW edge of the CDO and SE of a nice band to its N and NW. I expect the TS to wrap into the system and this will continue to get better looking. Models are split with the system, I will disagree with JB on the path of this right now as he and the Ukmet,Nogaps keep Bonnie more S and move it thru the Yucitan and towards Mexico(Nogaps) and Texas (Ukemet). Here is my disagreement, for 1 they dont initallize Charley that well, and keep it open til it gets w of Jamaica(already wrong). Also with the initialation of the wave it keeps it around 15 N to 77W cause it shows a open wave or weak low(as we all know its not). Weaker systems of waves generally move with the lowlevel flow and stronger system moves with the mid level flow and feel the affects more from upper disturbances or troughs in the atmosphere. Now the GFS takes Charley up across Cuba and parelles it to western florida up to the Big Bend area. I will agree with this for it has a better handle on the system but I wont say this will be the land fall spot. Too early to make a 4-5 day landfall forecast spot. Also to note with the center probably going to be relocated more N were i see it most of the models will tend more N also, but nogaps and Ukmet need to initialize Charley better or they will continue to move this w. Anyways with a current more adjust NW position, I feel this will keep charley very close to Jamaica and possibly making Landfall there Weds evening. A turn near the Ise of Youth to the N will make Key West a threat but I think it will stay to the west of Key west(not good for them cause worse weather generally if further reaching to the E of a system) and move up N close to and along the GFS path. Again to early to call a forcast landfall in florida. Also to note as i posted yesterday, If Charley slows down enough over the weekend and the trough moves out, then charley could meander and drift w or wnw towards the n central gulf beginning of next week, wayyyy to early to even call. On bonnie I expect hurricane watches to go up tongiht for the Mobile- Panama beach area if it gets better orgainzide later today thru this evening and Hurricane watches for Jamaica later tonight. At least there should be!!! scottsvb

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