I could agree with that too, NAO forecast to go postive in the short term, perhaps explaining the brief quiet period, but forecast to go negative again end of august, and with MJO's arrival, i think things could erupt soon. Western pacific also busy and with the tropical storm in eastern pacific about to cross 140 W into the central pacific, this pattern will be shifting into the Atlantic, and with the climatological height of the season approaching, all signs point to an upcoming busy period.
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