The NHC would most likely determine the path based on what the majority of reliable models would be forecasting. Changes are made depending on the status of all variables that go into the decision tree that determines where the system goes based on size, speed, trough locations, etc. That would be my unreliable opinion.
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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