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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 273 (Idalia) , Major: 273 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 273 (Idalia) Major: 273 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

recmod
Weather Guru

Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL

Re: TD 6 Discussion #1
Wed Aug 25 2004 02:32 AM

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2004

Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern associated with the
strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has become better
organized over the past several hours...with an increase of deep
convection near the low-level circulation center. Therefore the
system is being numbered at this time. There is pronounced
upper-level outflow to the North...East...and south of the
center...but outflow is limited to the east. Analyses from the
University of Wisconsin CIMSS indicate weak vertical shear along
the projected path of the cyclone to about 50w longitude. Farther
west and north...the shear may increase as suggested by the latest
200 mb forecast from the GFS model. Therefore strengthening may be
inhibited late in the forecast period...although this is highly
uncertain.
Initial motion is slightly north of west at around 15 kt. Dynamical
model predictions indicate a weakening of the mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next several
days...due to the incursion of a trough into the central Atlantic.
This trough is at rather high latitudes however...so it is not
likely to play a direct role in steering the tropical cyclone.
Notwithstanding...the track guidance generally shows a slowing of
the forward speed and a turn toward the northwest later in the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast follows this scenario...but
is a little to the south and faster than most of the models in view
of the current motion which seems to be accelerating to the west
as we speak.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/0300z 11.2n 36.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 25/1200z 11.8n 38.2w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/0000z 12.4n 40.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 26/1200z 13.0n 43.0w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/0000z 13.8n 45.1w 50 kt
72hr VT 28/0000z 16.0n 48.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 29/0000z 18.0n 51.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 30/0000z 20.0n 53.0w 70 kt

$$

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Activity Again	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 25 2004 02:32 AM
Re: Activity Again	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 02:56 PM
Re: Activity Again	James88	Mon Aug 23 2004 03:17 PM
Re: Activity Again	Rabbit	Mon Aug 23 2004 04:06 PM
Re: Activity Again	James88	Mon Aug 23 2004 07:10 PM
is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	bobbi	Mon Aug 23 2004 07:29 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 07:48 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Steve	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:00 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Frank P	Mon Aug 23 2004 08:50 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	LONNY307	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:24 PM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Steve	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:34 PM
longtracker season	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 23 2004 11:14 PM
Re: may not be a fish	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 12:08 AM
Re: may not be a fish	bobbi	Tue Aug 24 2004 01:10 PM
Re: may not be a fish	Hardcore	Tue Aug 24 2004 02:19 PM
Subtropical System and Frank	Keith234	Tue Aug 24 2004 02:31 PM
Re: Subtropical System and Frank	scottsvb	Tue Aug 24 2004 04:32 PM
50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:04 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:12 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:19 PM
Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:32 PM
this is reasonable	Frank P	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:26 PM
Re: this is reasonable	joepub1	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:40 PM
Re: this is reasonable	Anonymous	Tue Aug 24 2004 05:48 PM
Re: this is reasonable	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 24 2004 06:00 PM
frances forthcoming/southeast coast	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 06:55 PM
Re: frances forthcoming/southeast coast	Cycloneye	Tue Aug 24 2004 07:03 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD	Tropics Guy	Tue Aug 24 2004 07:10 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD	EriktheFled	Tue Aug 24 2004 08:26 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	LI Phil	Tue Aug 24 2004 08:52 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Clark	Tue Aug 24 2004 11:31 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	Tropics Guy	Wed Aug 25 2004 12:57 AM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	LI Phil	Wed Aug 25 2004 01:12 AM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?	Tropics Guy	Wed Aug 25 2004 02:01 AM
TD 6	Jamiewx	Wed Aug 25 2004 02:11 AM
Re: TD 6 DELETED	danielw	Wed Aug 25 2004 02:35 AM
Re: TD 6	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 25 2004 03:02 AM
TD Advisory #1	recmod	Wed Aug 25 2004 02:27 AM
Re: TD 6 Discussion #1	recmod	Wed Aug 25 2004 02:32 AM
we have T.D. 6	Jamiewx	Wed Aug 25 2004 01:45 AM
Re: we have T.D. 6	LI Phil	Wed Aug 25 2004 01:51 AM
Re: we have T.D. 6	EriktheFled	Wed Aug 25 2004 02:58 AM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Kevin	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:26 PM
Back	Kevin	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:24 PM
Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00	Steve	Tue Aug 24 2004 09:16 PM
Re: Subtropical System and Frank	SirCane	Tue Aug 24 2004 04:31 PM
may not be a landlubber either	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 24 2004 04:34 AM
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?	Frank P	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:33 PM
Quick post from the 'sick bed.'	LI Phil	Mon Aug 23 2004 09:10 PM
Re: Activity Again	Cycloneye	Sat Aug 21 2004 02:01 PM
Re: Activity Again	danielw	Sat Aug 21 2004 02:54 PM
Carribean activity this am	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 03:34 PM
cape verde system in the works	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 21 2004 03:43 PM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 03:53 PM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Gulf Coast	Sat Aug 21 2004 03:55 PM
Re: cape verde system in the works	Frank P	Sat Aug 21 2004 04:18 PM
Re: cape verde system in the works	LI Phil	Sat Aug 21 2004 07:49 PM
Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system	Tropics Guy	Sun Aug 22 2004 01:06 AM
Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 22 2004 01:45 AM
epac and mjo	bobbi	Sun Aug 22 2004 03:33 PM
Re: epac and mjo	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 22 2004 04:15 PM
Re: epac and mjo	James88	Sun Aug 22 2004 07:33 PM
Last dance with Frances?	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 22 2004 08:20 PM
Re: Last dance with Frances?	James88	Sun Aug 22 2004 08:32 PM
Is the wave dancing?	LoisCane	Sun Aug 22 2004 10:37 PM
Re: Is the wave dancing?	Ed Dunham	Mon Aug 23 2004 02:22 AM
Re: Is the wave dancing?	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 12:07 PM
96L invest for east atlantic wave	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 23 2004 12:39 PM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 01:41 PM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Cycloneye	Mon Aug 23 2004 01:47 PM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Anonymous	Mon Aug 23 2004 01:10 PM
Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave	Keith234	Mon Aug 23 2004 01:13 PM
new wave	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 21 2004 03:25 PM

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