The MJO factor in it's wet phase is now in the atlantic but it takes a week to see the effects of it in terms of activity.
Also the azores high is in a more normal and that will be another favorable factor.What we have to watch is that upper troughs and upper lows dominate the atlantic as they have done this season putting a cap to the caribbean and parts of the atlanic.
So let's wait and see what the heart of the season will bring.
-------------------- My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3