Wet weekend and next weekend, but tropical development very unlikely.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall —
US Any:
600 (Milton),
US Major:
600 (Milton),
FL Any:
600 (Milton),
FL Major:
600 (Milton)
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Models still seem confused on future TD4/Dolly.
Wed Aug 28 2002 08:21 PM
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Here is a link to the tracks...
http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropwea/tropmodtracks.htm
I believe that the models won't get a very good handle on this system until it has been classified for a few days. The tracks all seem to have too much of a wnw component in them for such a shallow system and most of them are too slow. Wait a couple of days before any of the models can be deemed reliable with this system. Also, the UKMET now holds the system through 7 days instead of dissipating the system like it did previously. The bottom line: this one will be slow to develop through 72-84 hours, reaching moderate to strong TS strength at that time. After that, the environment should become more favorable for rapid intensification. Despite what some are saying, at least a moderate threat to the islands by the early to mid portion of next week is possible. Things will become more clear as time wears on. Better get some rest...we have some long, fun, and exciting days and nights ahead perhaps.
Kevin 
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