The 11PM Advisory out and it shifts the track slightly left, GFL is what the hurricane center is favoring now. One disturbing trend is that the models slow the forward speed of the storm as it approaches the Florida coastline. However, the more southerly and Carolina tracks are still not ruled out, this time tomorrow evening we should have a better handle, that is if models and other aspects behave. Still more to come later.
This graphic (Thanks Skeetobite) represents the possible wind swath of Hurricane Force winds based on the current wind profile and current track over Central Florida as of 11PM Tuesday. The main point of this is to show that Frances is a larger system than Charley was (as far as diameter and windfield) and if the track holds could cause a wider area to see hurricane force winds.
My best guestimate for landfall as of now is the range between just south of West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral. This could change.
Frances has trended back left with the models and we'll be updating more later tonight.
New graphic Model plots animated over time to help see trends. Source images are from the South Florida Water managmenet District webpage.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tomorrow night at 8PM EST.
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Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas
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Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas
