Looking at the 1011 am EDT/1411 UTC visible satellite image from NRL Monterrey CAT 4 Ivan's eyewall has collapsed. He is currently experiencing a some unexpected (by me) WSW shearing and is also over a large patch of cooler ocean water. Of course this latest weakening development is a good development for Jamaica. He continues on an approximate WNW heading at 13 mph but I think we "may" see him begin to turn more NW and slow down within 12-18 hours.
This slowing of his forward speed will "possibly" allow Ivan to turn NW-N along 80-81 deg. west longitude instead of 82-83 deg. west longitude. So at this time I'm revising my landfall forecast, something I rarely do!!!
I place a CAT 4 hurricane strike at 50% along the southern coast of Florida between Fort Lauderdale and Naples.
I place a CAT 3-4 hurricane strike at 55% along the gulf coast of Florida between Naples and Tarpon Springs.
I place a CAT 3 hurricane strike at 45% along the gulf coast of Florida between Tarpon Springs and Cedar Key.
I place a CAT 2-3 hurricane strike at 40% in the big bend area between Cedar Key and Panacea.
Thomas F. Giella Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
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Thomas says shifting east
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