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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ukmet can bite me
      Wed Sep 04 2002 04:48 AM

i dont like the ukmet solution.. it doesnt look right. what i should be saying is that it does, just like the last few years, a potentially destructive system should end up being a fish spinner. but here's the thing. pretty solid model support has the ridge in the east surging back, building across to the north of the system. deep layer flow is pretty uniformly shown as east on most of the globals. why ukmet wants to leave some lower heights cut off from the westerlies and use that as an excuse to turn edouard into yet another northeast moving storm sort of baffles me. while the system is weak and the steering currents are weak i can see it loitering around east florida.. but late this week with the ridge back.. think florida gets hit, and then edouard is in the gulf.
very finicky system, but have a feeling this one will make a name for itself.
by the way ed, another SE atlantic system before the week is out. 80% on that.
by the way, like your opinion on why edouard weakened. very shear resistant little storm isnt it? looks like the worst of the subsidence is passed, too.
HF 0444z04september

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Edouard Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Sep 04 2002 04:48 AM
. * * TS Edouard - Update Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 03 2002 02:59 AM
. * * Re: TS Edouard - Update HanKFranK   Tue Sep 03 2002 04:44 AM
. * * Edouard - The Storm of the Century Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:00 AM
. * * ukmet can bite me HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:48 AM
. * * Edouard Looks Weak - But Gulf Looks Interesting Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:42 AM
. * * well.. HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 07:57 AM

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