The NHC has done its best with forecasting the trended path of Ivan the Terrible - based on all the variables and on the human component- but anyone within the dreaded cone should assume they are within the target- it does not matter where the eye goes- as everyone in my neck of the woods can recall Frances' trended path..
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard