Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Two active systems in the basin, one new invest, and an extratropical Ivan are the features of interest this morning. Jeanne is of course the one of greatest interest, as though there is significant doubt as to it's track, it still poses a looming threat to the east coast. Modeling went out to pasture with Jeanne yesterday, taking it all over the place, looping it around east of the Bahamas. That normally means the storm will move slowly and erratically... which is just what Jeanne needs to reorganize after it's fistfight with Hispaniola. The official forecast is still suggestive of an eventual impact in the United States... later on. Jeanne has shown a history of staying south and west of its forecast track, so if I was in Florida, up to South Carolina.. I'd not write Jeanne off.
Ivan gets next mention, even though the latest HPC advisory has declared it extratropical. Formerly formidable Ivan is now a ~1000mb elongated low centered around the middle Chesapeake Bay, moving eastward. Away north in Pennsylvania up to southwestern New England it's rainshield is still drenching folks.. but not to the tune of what was seen in the southern Appalachians. There is some indication that enough of Ivan's circulation will pivot offshore and be forced back down the Carolina coast to make a minor recovery.. this is just a scenario given by some of the models. Others shear Ivan's low out and degenerate the system east of Hatteras.
The strongest storm out there today is Karl, well on it's way to being a major hurricane. Karl poses no threat to land, but will provide us with one of those rarities of 2004, a fish spinner folks can ooh and aah over without feeling like they're egging on a killer.
Another invest is active between Karl and the Cape Verdes.. it has some development potential, but will likely never do much due to it's proximity to the deepening hurricane to it's west. Another impressive wave is emerging off the coast this morning.
There is nothing urgent in the tropics this morning, so check back from time to time during the weekend, but do enjoy the beautiful early fall weather behind Ivan (if you're not still getting rained on) and of course the college games today.
-HF

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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 18 2004 10:32 AM)

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