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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
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STS Gustav - Update 09/09
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As noted by Bill, from 18-20Z this system had three separate low-level circulations which were easy to detect in the visible imagery (and probably a couple of others that were under the heavier convection). This system can't stack at the low levels, much less aloft, so I don't see a sudden transformation to a tropical warm-core system. Movement is not northwest, it is westerly. Actual heading over the past couple of hours has been about 260 degrees and weakness in the outlying upper cloud patterns suggest that 250 is not that far away. I think that Gustav is about halfway through an irregular cyclonic loop. If this pans out, then two probable future tracks could occur: 1) the system completes the loop, remains well offshore, and the delay caused by the loop allows the system to get scooted off to the northeast under the influence of the approaching trough - or 2) the loop places the system far enough south such that it does not get influenced by the trough. Building high pressure (and northeast shear) behind the trough forces the system to the west southwest (perhaps even southwest although this seems a bit unlikely) similar to Edouard. In either case, full tropical development is not going to happen soon (if at all). Sometimes (and its easy to do) you can get caught in the trap of looking at the models for the future of a system and you forget to examine what has been going on in the past few hours. If this system remains below hurricane strength (and I think that it will), it will tie the record for the most consecutive tropical storms in a row - which was 7; 3 at the end of the 1906 season and 4 at the start of the 1907 season. This is the first recorded season that has ever started with six straight (maybe about to become seven straight) tropical storms. I can't recall the year, but one season only had four systems - all Tropical Storms.
