ed.. not quite following ya. since about mid afternoon gustav has started throwing core convection and now has quite a bit of it. much deeper than the earlier stuff. i'm thinking the forecast tracks are pretty much on target, maybe underestimating the ridge just a tad. theyre all in such good agreeement, no reason not to go with them.
by the way, nhc lack of continuity is annoying me. they havent upped the winds for quite some time now even though the pressure is falling. that one buoy is almost right under the center and reporting 997.. not your normal fare 40kt storm. not to mention recon got winds at 53kt flight level around 1930z and didnt reckon this into their formula. so what if it was SW quadrant, and not the usual NE quad max.. thats where all the convection was. dont you usually get your max sfc winds in a slot where the convection is heaviest in one of these storms?
anyway 53kt equates to 48kt surface, which is good for a 60mph storm. that was before the 5pm update, when they changed nothing.
i really hope they fix this at 11pm. and make it ts gustav finally.
HF 0132z09september
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Re: STS Gustav - Update 09/09
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