Wet weekend and next weekend, but tropical development very unlikely.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall —
US Any:
596 (Milton),
US Major:
596 (Milton),
FL Any:
596 (Milton),
FL Major:
596 (Milton)
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
|
Re: Latest Nor'easter.
Fri May 20 2005 06:12 PM
|
|
|
The FSU Superensemble is restricted to the NHC & other selected groups. The fee to access it is not a small one.
The lows going up the Gulf Stream are not warm-core systems. Just because a low may form over warm SSTs does not mean that it is warm-core; the temperature structure of the storm through the atmosphere, the energetics in play, and the vertical profile of winds all either play a role in determining the storm structure or are markers of the structure.
The Cyclone Phase Space diagrams (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/) take into account storm-symmetry (as measured in the thickness & height fields) and the vertical profile of winds/wind shear to determine cyclone type, as these factors (primarily the wind profile) include information about the other aspects inherently. Without going into too much detail, a warm core system is going to see its strongest winds at low levels & decreasing with height, while a cold-core system will see the opposite. The CPS mentioned above measures this through thermal wind, or the vertical shear/change in the wind with height, making it an effective measure of classifying storm structure.
Warm-core systems generally develop through latent heat release/transport within the central core, while cold-core systems generally develop in response to strong jet dynamics (e.g. shear) or in the presence of large baroclinicity (e.g. temperature gradients). This latter fact helps explain how many cyclones "bomb" off of the coast of the U.S.: the cold air behind the system & the warm waters of the Gulf stream provide a very strong temperature gradient & ample baroclinicity for such a cold-core cyclone to develop. Hybrid storms lie somewhere between the cold & warm core designations and may incorporate parts of both storm structures/development mechanisms to any number of varying degrees.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
|
0 registered and 14 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
|
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
|
Rating:
Thread views: 7972
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: This is
NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who
donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the
National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
