This is Memorial Day weekend, the traditional kick-off of the summer season. Climatologically speaking we're at the very end of spring now, even if astronomical summer begins around June 21. Wednesday next week is the first of June, when the Atlantic basin season begins.
Chances are very high that nothing will happen in the next week, but to feed interest for the time being the good Dr. Gray has given us the updated season numbers (or at least had them released as of Thursday, five days prior to their announced date). They are on the high side to say the least--15 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes. To put that into perspective, that is Arlene-Bret-Cindy-Dennis-Emily-Franklin-Gert-Harvey-Irene-Jose-Katrina-Lee-Maria-Nate-Ophelia. Plenty of company. Last year we were at 15/9/6 (or one less if you prefer to exclude Nicole)... so Gray's numbers are more or less a rehash of 2004.
The cited reasons for such a forecast are the large area of positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and a neutral to weak-warm ENSO state. These numbers are troubling to folks who do not want a hurricane paying them a visit this year. The key, as always, will be where the storms go as opposed to how many there are. That is a tougher call to make... check out Rob Mann's forum post link of May 25 if you want to read one school of thought on what is coming up. There will be more to come on that line of topic as we get closer to the heart of the season.
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