Arlene tries...but just misses.....

To paraphrase the beloved author Snoopy...last night in Panama City "...was a dark and stormy night." However, it wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been. Arlene struggled with organization issues all night, unable to get any significant deep convection going. First lght this morning Arlene, from a structure standpoint, looks about as good as it ever has, but she has just about run out of room and the shelf waters underneath her are about to get somewhat cooler. In addition, as noted in the early discussions from NHC, the flight level winds are not mixing down to the surface as you would expect them too...in fact the highest on-shore wind gust that I have found so far is 43 mph at Apalachicola in the 9AM (CDT) hour...well after the center of the storm passed by. Panama City recorded a gust to 36 mph in the same hour. Rainfall totals have been averaging abotu 2-2.5 inches nearshore, with totals around .75-1.50 inches further inland so far. A tornado watch is in effect for most of the Florida Panhandle, but at the time of this writing there are no signs of rotating thunderstorms in the feeder bands (in fact, there aren't many feeder bands!)

GFS and other modelliing are trying to develops something new out to the east...we'll deal with that tomorrow.

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Jason Kelley

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