Thanks Clark and Coop. Sure is nice to have additional commentary.
I've been looking at the various NOAA Centers and Southern FL NWS AFDs.
All of the above mentioned Centers and Offices including the TAFB (Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch), are aware of the GFS forecasting situation in the SE GOM. All of them are calling it 'model feedback' and are tossing the GOM Low pressure development-out the window.
Most of them do mention precipitation being on the increase for the next day or so.
But theyAre Not looking for any development.
From the Hydrological Prediction Center Discussion edited~danielw
...MID LEVEL TROF/LOW FROM MID ATLC INTO GULF OF MEXICO...
FIRST OF ALL... WILL DISCOUNT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT THE GFS BRINGS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO FL. THUS FAR THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL MDLS FOR SUCH A FEATURE. ALSO...NO MORE THAN 10-20 PERCENT OF 09Z SREF AND 00Z/06Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT ANY KIND OF DEFINED SFC LOW PROGRESSING NEWD OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE CONSULT THE TPC/NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR UPDATED INFO REGARDING CONDITIONS OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN/SERN GULF OF MEXICO AND VICINITY...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
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