Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean

TD3 Update - Monday, 8PM
Tropical Depression #3 in the southern Gulf of Mexico is showing signs of better organization. Although fighting southwesterly shear throughout most of Monday, the cyclone has weathered the storm (pardon the pun). At 05/00Z I estimate the position to be 23N 89W - not quite as far west or north as the official NHC position. TD3 has slowed down a bit - probably more like 8mph rather than the earlier 13mph, and the motion, at least for the moment, seems to be due north rather than north northwest. Frankly, I'd expect a northerly or even north northeasterly motion - primarily because the expected westward extension of the mid-Atlantic ridge across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico has not materialized as previously advertised by many of the forecast models. Given the shear (although rather light) and the lack of any significant trend toward rising pressure across Florida, I think that a more northerly course can be anticipated. If the current reorganization continues, TD3 should become a TS on Tuesday. The amount of intensification is still a problem. The slower speed gives the cyclone a greater amount of time over warm water, but if light shear continues there might only be a limited increase in strength. Unless the Atlantic ridge suddenly springs to life and extends westward, we could see some adjustments of the forecast track a little to the right. Don't take that for the gospel - I never seem to do too well with Gulf systems. ED

8AM 4.July.2005
Tropical Depression Three is over the Yucatan now. And the official track has shifted a little to the right, giving more concern to the western central Gulf coastline. Intensity forecasts still keep it a Tropical Storm, but this will need to be watched over the week.

The area near the windward islands this morning is also a potential area to develop later this week. The longer range models insist that we watch this system.

The chance for development graph for the Windward system:
Code:


forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
          [-------*-------------]

Original Update
The Third Tropical depression of the year has formed in the far western Caribbean, it is about to move over the Yucatan peninsula and after that, enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The current focus is toward the Western Gulf Coast, and texas. Other areas east of Texas will want to keep tabs as well. Because of land interaction with the Yucatan, it is currently expected to be no stronger than a Tropical Storm.

We will be watching it.

This has spun up from the Southwestern Caribbean area that didn't look likely for development earlier in the week, but has now moved finally into an area more favorible for development. The Yucatan Peninsula will keep it in check.

Other activity is going up for this week so there may be more to watch this week. Like for example, in the Atlantic east of the Windward Caribbean islands.

For those in the US, have a good independence day holiday.

More to come later.

Event Related Links:

TD#3:
Animated Model Plot of Tropical Depression #3
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of TD#3

TD#4:
Animated Model Plot of Tropical Depression #4
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of TD#4

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