Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
|
Cindy & Dennis organize, threaten land
Tue Jul 05 2005 02:14 PM
|
|
|
Currently, Tropical Storm Cindy is bearing down along the northern Gulf coast, trying to become a bit better organized before making landfall in the next 12-18 hours somewhere near New Orleans. Further out in the basin, Tropical Storm Dennis is trekking through the east-central Caribbean, gradually gaining strength as it goes, and looks to be a potential threat for the Greater Antilles & Southeast US over the next 3-5 days.
First off, Cindy. After the storm passed over some of the warmest & highest heat content waters in the entire Atlantic basin, there has been a response in the overall structure and organization of the storm. While still being impacted by some mid-level dry air and shear along the west side of the storm, the center is trying to tuck in just on the western side of the deepest convection and has an appearance nnot unlike that of Earl from a few years ago -- albeit not nearly as strong. Winds at 11am were bumped to 50mph, bumped up with the help of some ship observations to 60mph at 2pm. Some slight strengthening is likely before landfall, not counting the possibility that the current intensity is being underestimated without the presence of recon.
Waters cool off a bit closer to land and the outer islands along the Louisiana coast may serve as a check on intensity. Nevertheless, while there may be some impacts from winds felt between Biloxi and New Orleans, the greatest impact from this storm will be felt with rain, primarily along the east side of the track from Biloxi to Pensacola and inland up to the Atlanta/Birmingham area. It should not stall out for an extended period of time, but may slow down as it recurves to the east and northeast. Current NHC forecast track & intensity guidance looks reasonable with the storm. Those in the path of the storm should rush any necessary tasks to completion, with landfall -- not counting the islands this time -- looking likely for around the changeover between Tuesday and Wednesday.
With Cindy nearing landfall, the third such storm to do so this season, many have already begun to focus on the next storm in line, Tropical Storm Dennis. The first definitive estimates of its true intensity will come later today, with it is entirely possible that the current intensity of 40mph is underestimating the actual intensity of the storm given the very impressive -- and continually improving -- satellite appearance. Do remember, though, that satellite can be deceving at times. Low shear and a lack of land await the storm in the central Caribbean, though the waters there are slightly cooler than to its east and west. Continued strengthening is likely, with hurricane status possible in the next 2 days. A period of rapid deeping is not out of the question, but that's highly uncertain at this point.
The future intensity of the storm, given largely favorable conditions, depends to a large degree upon the future track of the storm. Unlike last year, where the models continued to shift the paths of these such storms to the left with each successive run, current initialization of the steering flow pattern is pretty good. While we have seen a little bit of leftward-trending in the track from the two models that handled it the best, the FSUMM5 and the GFS, that has largely ceased at this point. If anything, I would expect the current forward speed to slow just slightly, but keep the storm ahead of the official track in the short-term. It is too far out -- 3-5 days -- to say where this storm will make landfall, whether in the Caribbean or the US, but it is likely that all areas will be impacted by this storm. I do believe it will miss Hispaniola and likely pass just south of Jamaica, but after that -- all bets are off. It is too early to call whether or not the subtropical ridge will move further eastward with time -- Cindy & its remnants are more likely to ride over the ridge than budge into it and move it -- but the strongest targets as of now look to be central/western Cuba, Florida, and the northern Gulf coast to New Orleans. If the storm largely misses land, it has an outside shot at major hurricane status, though a category 1 or 2 storm is more likely at this point. Be prepared, but do not let the memories of 2004 throw you into a panic now!
The NOAA surveillance planes are scheduled to head out to Dennis over the coming days as well, hopefully helping to refine forecasts of its future path as it treks through the Caribbean. It is certainly one to watch, as the path it takes through the Caribbean will have a large bearing on how intense the storm gets as well as where it ultimately ends up making landfall. Stay tuned...
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
