I agree. Many variables, such as climatology, speed,water surface temperature, sheering (or lack thereof) troughs, and ridges all are variables that computer models try to measure and extrapolate based on all current known facts. I have more respect for the NHC to interpret these models and have no reason to doubt their forecasted path-however, with that said- a hurricane can still surprise us where it will ultimately make landfall.
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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