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KN4LF
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Emily Strengthening
      Tue Jul 12 2005 11:58 AM

#65 Published Tuesday July 12, 2005 at 11:00 am EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

As of 11:00 pm EDT yesterday evening we officially inherited T.S. Emily. At the 11:00 am EDT advisory T.S. Emily has a sustained wind of 50 mph. It is at position 11.0 N 51.3 W with a minimum barometric pressure of 29.53". It is currently on a west heading or 280 degrees at a speed of 20 mph.

Latest satellite imagery shows a better organized system that is now becoming embedded in the synoptic easterly trade winds. There is also some wind shear on her north side so I do not expect rapid intensification in the short term. She should reach minimum hurricane status in approximately 36 hours as she crosses the Windward islands, if she clears South America and CAT 2 cyclone status by the time she reaches the mid Caribbean Sea region.

Looking at forecast models, there is a future track spread from north of the Greater Antilles to south of the Greater Antilles but with a fairly tight grouping over the big islands. Emily should continue to slowly climb in latitude and I think that her track will stay just south of the big islands, as the Bermuda high pressure ridge re-establishes itself north of the Greater Antilles in future days.

This is just educated speculation, if Emily climbs across and then north of Hispaniola and/or eastern Cuba it will take a beating much like Dennis did and then will probably threaten South Florida as at least a CAT 2 cyclone, as the recurve corridor east of Florida will probably be closed, ala Frances and Jeanne in 2004.

If Emily stays south of Hispaniola and once again I think she will, she will eventually cross central or western Cuba and emerge into the SE Gulf Of Mexico as a CAT 1-2 cyclone and threaten the Gulf Coast as a major hurricane from Pensacola westward like Arlene, Cindy and Dennis.

And to complicate matters even further, if the tropical disturbance trailing Emily develops into a tropical cyclone Franklin and he tracks north of the Greater Antilles, we could see Emily forced further south through the Caribbean by the Bermuda high pressure ridge and/or do a Fujiwara dance with Franklin and then only God knows where they will head.

Stay tuned as it's going to be a very interesting 10 days!!!

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