Emily continues moving largely towards the west, only hours away from passing through the lower Lesser Antilles. From the initial forecasts, the westward motion has been quite a departure, primarily caused by continual reorganization cycles as the storm developed, a weaker overall storm than forecast, and a stronger ridge of high pressure in the low-mid levels. A stairclimb path northward through the Caribbean is forecast by the NHC through 5 days, and that seems reasonable at this time. I would perhaps trend a tick south initially, then compensating that with a tick further north course in 3-4 days. This is due to a combination of a weaker storm than forecast in the short-term and a stubborn upper-low in the western Caribbean that, while weak, may likely serve to compensate for the initial track.
Intensity has proven -- and will continue to prove to be -- the biggest forecast factor with the storm, as was proven this evening with a very sudden jump in intensity of 30mph to 90mph. Until now, the storm has proven weaker than forecasts and, given the forecast of a major hurricane in three days, I believe it will continue to do so in the short-term...but only just barely. Interaction with the cooler waters along the coast of South America and dry air entrainment off of the continent (plus a bit off of Hispaniola coupled with what is present in the environment) will likely serve to keep any significant strengthening in check through the next two-three days, with only slow intensification expected to just below major hurricane strength. This is part of the aforementioned reasoning to keep the storm moving moreso toward the west in the short-term. Beyond that, as it moves away from land, the storm should be able to gain in intensity, perhaps reaching major hurricane status in the NW Caribbean. I think the end result in the NHC forecast is reasonable, but might be just a tad fast in ramping up the intensity.
The invest (99L) behind Emily is currently moving NW and has a small but persistent convective feature associated with it. There does not appear to be a surface circulation associated with the wave any longer, however, and unless one redevelops, any development will be subdued or slowed. Another feature has just emerged off of the coast and looks reasonably healthy, but only time will tell to see if it can persist over the cooler waters near Africa until it reaches far enough west to be more favorable for development.
Posting time will be limited over the rest of the month, particularly compared to recently, but I will be happy to answer any questions in the interim.
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