the fairy godmother got emily today, too. like dennis this storm isn't making landfall at peak intensity, though 135mph is nothing to relax about. storm should probably spin down to a 1/2 by late tomorrow when it slides off into the gulf... and deepen back to a 3 by mid tuesday. it may gain a little latitude as the shortwave slides by to the north on the continent.. models not showing a great deal of this.. then resume wnw course and probably hit extreme ne mexico a couple hours before sunrise on wednesday. may be edging cat 4 intensity by that time again. i don't buy quite the westerly bend nhc is advertising, but don't think it'll get up to texas either. 99L probably didn't survive the upper trough. the southern vortmax from earlier is popping some convection, oddly enough.. but it was the weak one that i didn't expect to survive. essentially no model support for future activity with this feature, but i've still got a shred of remaining concern that the part that made it through can regenerate. stranger things have happened, but this one is probably done. weak model support for subsequent waves in the east atlantic to spin up. mild suggestion of an extratropical-origin fish spinner in the north atlantic also. after emily is done we may not see another july system, though right now i'd say that chances are slightly higher that something else will perk up before the month is out. HF 0758z18july
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emily beyond the yucatan, 99L
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