With 92L disorganized, sheared, and interacting with the Greater Antilles, focus goes back to invest system 93L, currently located east of the southern Lesser Antilles. While 93L became rather disorganized late during the work week, it has perked back up as it enters a region of favorable upper-level winds and higher oceanic heat content. The good mid-level signature remains present, in association with the main region of convection, but now there is a surface center to go along with the feature as well -- albeit one to the NE of the deep convection.
It is currently under an upper-level ridge with very low shear in the region, making further development possible, particularly moreso than with 92L. Shear tendencies ahead of 93L are favorable, and models -- particularly the GFS and NOGAPS -- have been consistent in moving the ridge with the disturbance and keeping shear values low. With water temperatures still above normal in the vicinity and ahead of the disturbance, it is one to watch closely over the coming days. Unless something drastic changes, I don't see many negating factors ahead other than climatology -- and we all know how often this season has followed climatology so far.
If current trends continue, I would expect a depression to form by the start of the week, with slow development likely through the Caribbean. The system should move generally west to west-northwest, gradually slowing down, for the next 3-5 days, with the jury still out as to whether or not there would be an opportunity for the feature to turn into the Gulf (e.g. like Dennis) or keep on a more westward course (e.g. Emily). I've been burned by this feature before, but it's in a region more favorable for development now.
92L still bears watching, but it is being sheared by an upper-low to its NW and most of the convective activity is resulting from diffluent flow aloft in association with the upper-low. Given its proximity to the Greater Antilles, I don't expect anything out of this disturbance until the Gulf -- if it gets there -- if at all. An upper-low near 30N/40W is firing up convection near its periphery; might try to take on some hybrid characteristics down the line if it keeps up with the convection, but that's not a given. Any close-in features have a series of upper lows -- one in the Bay of Campeche, one near Dry Tortugas, and another near the eastern Bahamas -- to deal with, all slowly moving west. Weak ripples of low pressure and convective flareups may move across the northern Gulf states for the next couple days, but I wouldn't expect much there either (other than some rain).
I'm away for the next half-week or so, so stay tuned to the others here for future updates.
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