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Ron:

The 12z run is 8am EST, I believe. So that model was incorporated into the NHC's 11 am forecast; it does not represent a model shift SINCE that forecast (or since 8 am).

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Brad:

My point was it represented a southward shift from the previous 06Z FSUmm5 run. Since the mm5 is experimental (correct me if I mistate Clark), it is not part of the NHC's suite of models used in their forecasting. The NHC also uses the FSU super-ensemble, which is not available to the public.

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RJB

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