not a bad philosophy. problem is, the ridge is transient.. even a strong storm could come in if it builds strong further west than the models are showing (the overall pattern could support the ridging trending stronger near the mid-atlantic coast). as for the next 24 hrs.. the upper low to the sw is keeping it in check, but probably adding some latitude. the current ridge centered near bermuda should weaken around 48-72 and then rebridge afterwards.. exactly how that happens will determine whether irene misses nc, goes into nc, or bends back to the west and impacts further south. the basic premise of timing of intensification i won't argue with, though... how irene intensifies will feed back into the strength and alignment of nearby ridging, and the tendency to move poleward via that beta advection thing clark explained but i haven't learned. when irene gets aligned correctly and starts intensifying... we'll have a much better idea what the track will be. HF 0544z11august
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