Track forecast reasoning remains largely unchanged from last night, shifted ever-so-slightly west to a center position of Biloxi, MS, as does the intensity forecast. This storm has the potential for some rapid deepening this evening, with the eyewall replacement cycle likely to conclude over the next 2-3hr. As the storm reaches the diurnal convective maximum overnight, nears the location of the Loop Current, and moves away from that eyewall cycle and starts to tighten up once again, this storm could head towards category 4 intensity, maybe even stronger. Given the further westward motion, the slight weakening predicted before landfall may not come to materialize and the NHC's prediction of a strong category 4 hurricane at landfall unfortunately looks to be reasonable.
Those in the New Orleans area need to rush preparations to completion in preparation for a landfalling major hurricane. At this point, tidal flooding and wind damage are the greatest concerns with the potential for catastrophic damage quite possible. Those in Gulfport, Biloxi, Pascagoula, and on over to Mobile should also begin taking precautions now for hurricane conditions on Monday. This storm has proven very much fickle and prone to erratic behavior, so everything must be watched closely for any changes, but with landfall looking to be about 2 days away, the potential error starts to shrink -- particularly given the clustering in the model guidance.
More later.
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