Good morning all. Looks like some broad cyclonic turning starting to develop off the SE coast of FL. All of the global models have indicated over the last several days a closed low developing from the old surface trough that migrated southward and now stalled over south FL. 00Z CMC takes the low across the south half of the peninsula, into the GOM to NO. 00Z NOGAPs & UKMET move it slowly up the easy coast of FL and deepen it. 06Z GFS runs it up the middle of the state and then NE. From NWS Tampa Bay 2 AM Disc:
MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE NAM BEING THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A MORE DEVELOPED LOW ONTO THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT PAINFULLY SLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS SOUTH AND LOWER POPS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE REVERSE. PRE-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY DID SHOW SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AS MENTIONED IN TPC'S LATE EVENING TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. BOTH MODELS TAKE THE LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE LOW CENTER IN QUESTION FOR MID-WEEK IS ACTUALLY A NEW ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE INITIAL LOW LIFTS OUT. BOTH MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS LOW BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE SLOW MOVEMENT IF AND WHEN THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP.
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