The Future Track of Rita - FLHurricane.com

Monday - Noon Update
Tropical Storm Rita located west of the central Bahamas near 23.1N 75.8W at Noon moving to the west northwest at 13mph. Rita will continue on a west to west northwest track and pass over or just to the north of the western Keys from Marathon to Key West early tomorrow afternoon as a hurricane. Sustained winds currently at 60mph will increase to 90mph with gusts near 115mph as Rita passes near the western Keys on Tuesday. Tropical Storm force winds are possible along the Florida east coast as far north as Port St. Lucie starting early tomorrow morning in scattered rain squalls. Hurricane force winds are possible south of Ft. Lauderdale tomorrow morning. In east central Florida expect winds out of the east at 25 gusting to 35mph on Tuesday and a few rain squalls from the outer bands of Rita are possible. Heavy rain in south Florida and the Keys on Tuesday. Rita should continue on a westerly track into the Gulf of Mexico during the week and eventually curve more northward with a potential for landfall as a Category III major hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border Saturday morning. Hurricane Warnings are posted for south Florida and the Keys and Tropical Storm Warnings extend north to Jupiter along the Florida east coast and on the west coast a Tropical Storm Watch extends north to Englewood.
ED

Original Post
Tropical Storm Rita near 23.2N 73.2W at 19/04Z - well east of Nassau, Bahamas, and moving to the west northwest at about 10mph. Movement should continue on a west northwest direction for another 18 to 24 hours and then become more westerly. Sustained wind currently at 50 knots however intensification is likely as upper wind shear relaxes and she should reach hurricane intensity by late Monday evening.

Rita has two lobes of activity with the center located east of the western lobe. The western lobe tends to pulse up during the day while the eastern (actually more like southeastern) one intensifies during the late evening. This can create a 'stair-stepping' forward motion with jogs to the west followed by jogs to the northwest . The high pressure center north of the central Gulf coast has a ridge that extends eastward across Florida and into the Atlantic, however the eastern extent of this ridge is weak and Rita has actually pinched off this ridge from another Atlantic high pressure center located northeast of the storm. This is somewhat similar to the pattern for Hurricane Erin in 1995, however at that time the ridge to the north was not as strong.

Rita's general west northwest motion has adjusted the official NHC track about 50 miles to the right (north) during the day on Sunday and another similar adjustment is not out of the question on Monday as Rita continues to become better organized. If this should happen, its possible that Rita could clip extreme south Florida anywhere from Cutler Ridge southwestward to Homestead. If she assumes a more westerly track by Monday mid-day, she will pass through the Florida Straits and bring winds at or near hurricane force to the Keys. Regardless of the actual scenario, Rita is heading for the Gulf of Mexico and shortly after she reaches 90W in a few days, she should begin to move more to the northwest - perhaps as a major hurricane although some lingering dry air in the western Gulf could slow down her intensification at that time. Certainly folks along the northwestern Gulf coast need to monitor Rita during the week.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, Phillipe is now a hurricane well east of the Windward Islands and he is moving slowly to the north. A slow northward motion is likely for the rest of this week with the expectation that he will remain at sea and eventually move off to the northeast. Phillipe should continue to intensify and has a chance at becoming a major hurricane during the week.

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands is fighting westerly shear and doesn't have much chance for any organization for a couple of days.

One correction on a (much) earlier post - if we use up all of the storm names this year, the Greek alphabet would be used if needed (not the phonetic alphabet).
ED

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