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BERTHA ATTEMPTING TO JUMP BACK OFFSHORE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA WED NIGHT. Tropical Storm Warning issued west of Cameron, LA to Sargent, TX

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 651 (Milton), US Major: 651 (Milton), FL Any: 651 (Milton), FL Major: 651 (Milton)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Brett
Unregistered

Kyle
Mon Sep 30 2002 03:18 PM

I just don't buy it. One series of model runs last night, which happen to agree on the east motion, and the forecast is completely changed. Now, as the NHC acknowledges, the center reforms more than 200 miles to the south, and "the track will have to be adjusted." I'm sorry, but these are professionals, correct? I mean, I know its far from an exact science, but isn't there some thinking going on here, other than model-reliance? I don't know. Lately, I have been feeling that they are doing nothing more than regurgitating models, which change as the data that is put into them changes. I would love to see some creative, intuitive, human forecasting from the NHC.

I don't mean to bash. I just don't think its such a sure thing that this system will get picked up by a trof that, admittedly, "appears weak" on imagery. My prediction? Not necessarily that it becomes a U.S. landfall event, but I think its gonna keep heading SW into the Bahamas, perhaps move a little bit east, get left behind...and we have a hurricane just east of the Bahamas, with an inclination to nudge west...

As for Lili? Watch out west of New Orleans. Yikes.

Thoughts?

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Lili Now a Hurricane Gulf must Watch	CFHC	Mon Sep 30 2002 03:18 PM
Re: Lili Now a Hurricane Gulf must Watch	dennis	Mon Sep 30 2002 04:09 PM
Re: Lili Now a Hurricane Gulf must Watch	Brad in Miami	Mon Sep 30 2002 04:16 PM
Re: Lili Now a Hurricane Gulf must Watch	dennis	Mon Sep 30 2002 04:03 PM
Re: Lili Now a Hurricane Gulf must Watch	Brad in Miami	Mon Sep 30 2002 04:08 PM
Couple of Site Fixes	MikeC	Mon Sep 30 2002 02:34 PM
Re: Lili Now a Hurricane Gulf must Watch	MikeB	Mon Sep 30 2002 12:50 PM
Predictions	Brett	Mon Sep 30 2002 12:11 PM
Re: Predictions	Steve H.	Mon Sep 30 2002 12:47 PM
Re: Lili Now A Hurricane.	Rich B	Mon Sep 30 2002 11:57 AM
Strike Possibilities.....	Colleen A.	Mon Sep 30 2002 12:43 PM
Wassup Guru Colleen?	Steve	Mon Sep 30 2002 12:57 PM
Silent	ShawnS	Mon Sep 30 2002 01:10 PM
Colleen.......HEY SHAWN	Frank P	Mon Sep 30 2002 12:53 PM
Hey Frank P..	Houstontracker	Mon Sep 30 2002 01:29 PM
Re: Hey Frank P..	scottsvb	Mon Sep 30 2002 01:51 PM
lili threatens, kyle toys	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 30 2002 02:39 PM
Re: Hey Frank P..	Frank P	Mon Sep 30 2002 01:45 PM
Some differences in the new runs...	Steve	Mon Sep 30 2002 02:45 PM
Re: Some differences in the new runs...	Stevenotloggedin	Mon Sep 30 2002 03:35 PM
Kyle	Brett	Mon Sep 30 2002 03:18 PM
New Iberia	jth	Mon Sep 30 2002 01:36 PM

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