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Watching 94L off the Mid-Atlantic for possible subtropical or even tropical transition this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nicholas) , Major: 57 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1111 (Michael) Major: 1111 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2002 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricane Lili
      Tue Oct 01 2002 11:48 PM

Pressure now down to 963mb which would normally support Cat III, but flight level winds still not quite there - it will make it there on Wednesday. Its still a bit early to nail down the landfall - it all depends on where the turn to the north takes place. If I had to pick an area right now (and this will probably surprise a few folks), I'd say somewhere between Franklin, LA, and Pass Christian, MS, around 18Z on the 3rd. Models would suggest something further west - but I have yet to see a model hit a five day forecast - I guess that there's always a first time. I'd also expect a strong Cat II or a weak Cat III at landfall. Everyone along the north Gulf coast needs to remain vigilant - Lili is developing into a major hurricane.

From where I sit in Melbourne, Kyle don't make me smile , but at least he'll hold off for awhile - winds now back up to 45kts.
Cheers,
ED

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Lili Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Oct 01 2002 11:48 PM
. * * Hurricane Lili - Update Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Oct 02 2002 11:30 PM
. * * Good forecast Ed... Steveunplugged   Sat Oct 05 2002 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Good forecast Ed... Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Oct 05 2002 10:43 PM

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