tracking the high pressure system is the key....

You should always make evacuation decisions based on the predicted path by NHC, and your local NWS information. NHC has had an amazingly good track record in predicting the track and landfall of hurricanes.

It is never a good idea to evacuate to another coastal area that may be prone to storm surge and high winds, should a hurricane change course. It is necessary to go inland.

If you can't find hotels nearby, welcome to the world of hurricane evacuations in our increasingly-populated coastline. In MS, local hotels are all taken early by LA and AL evacuees; MS residents usually have to go as far as TN or TX to evacuate. Every time you have to evacuate, it cost time and $. You have to move everything off the floor and board up your house, take time off work, get money from the bank, decide how to care for pets, pack clothes, food, medications, etc, spend hours in traffic jams on the road and run the risk of being stranded with no available gasoline. It is becoming increasingly expensive to evacuate, which may have to be done several times in a season, and many of the people who live in the coastal areas are poor.

That is why it is important to have a plan in place, and some provisions stocked, at the beginning of each hurricane season.

The steering of a storm is much more complicated than looking at one area of high pressure. Also hurricanes are steered by winds at different heights in the atmosphere depending on their intensity. Trust NHC regarding forecast predictions; don't try to second-guess them with limited knowledge. They are very good at what they do, and their goal is to provide the right warnings to make as many people as safe as possible.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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