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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Gray's 2003 season forecast it out!
      Fri Dec 06 2002 05:52 PM

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/dec2002/

Here are some observations on this forecast:
1. I'm going to come out and say this right away--from the reading of the factors, 2003 seems to have the earmarks of a dangerous hurricane season. The easterly QBO and few other factors with only very slight negative influenes will occur.
2. This forecast has also shown some signs of being conservative, especially with the development of a La Nina. There are some many factors, especially the increasing trade winds in the Pacifc, a developing high in the Pacific, and the upwelling under the eq. Pacific. The forecast stated these factors all favor the development of a La Nina by next summer--true--but the forecast only includes neutral conditions. HDP is already 100, which is high compared to the average of 71.

So, it appears we may finally be in for a season that is more in line 1996, 1998, 1999. Many people have consistently forecasted the US East Coast to get pounded. Well, 2003 may finally have to stuff to "get it done", so to speak. If the pattern is right, this could be a very bad season.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* That's it for 2002 CFHCAdministrator Fri Dec 06 2002 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Merry Christmas guys cooltiger   Tue Dec 24 2002 11:59 PM
. * * zoe HF at home   Sun Jan 05 2003 12:01 PM
. * * Re: zoe Kevin   Sun Jan 05 2003 12:24 PM
. * * Re: zoe Bill   Sun Jan 05 2003 06:36 PM
. * * Gray's 2003 season forecast it out! Kevin   Fri Dec 06 2002 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Gray's 2003 season forecast it out! (HF)   Sat Dec 07 2002 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Gray's 2003 season forecast it out! Kevin   Mon Dec 09 2002 07:51 PM
. * * Re: That's it for 2002 Kevin   Mon Dec 02 2002 08:04 PM
. * * What's up guys? Steve   Thu Dec 05 2002 01:30 AM
. * * Re: That's it for 2002 anonymous (HF)   Mon Dec 02 2002 11:25 PM
. * * Report from Western Carribean Ed Onboard   Mon Dec 02 2002 02:21 PM

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