Kevin, I agree that the Caribbean looks like it could become more active this year. Taking a look at the last 100 years, 67 seasons had 2 Majors or less, thus 33 had 3 or more. Only 19 (about one in five) had 4 or more, 13 had 5 or more, 7 had 6 or more, 1961 had 7 and 1950 had 8 Majors. Looking at tropical Pacific SST anomalies, if the first quarter of this year was a weak El Nino and you expect the second quarter to become neutral, then the best ENSO analog years are 1959, 1970, 1978, 1980 and 1988 - 1959 had 3 Majors while the rest had one or none. If you believe that the first quarter of the year had neutral SST anomalies and that the second quarter will become a weak El Nino, then the best ENSO analog years are 1957, 1972, 1982 and 1991 - 1957 and 1991 had two Majors. Probably 1959 and 1957 are the best overall analog years and the average number of named storms for all of those analog years was only 9, which makes a forecast of 12 a bit gutsy. TSR is calling for 9 and Accuwx 10. Most of the analog years mentioned above had a very quiet Cape Verde season, and with a quiet Cape Verde season, I just don't anticipate as many Majors. However, if the Cape Verde area gets active this year, then you can pitch this rationale Cheers,
ED
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