At 19/23Z the exposed low level circulation center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near 16.3N 85.0W, just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras, and the storm has been moving slowly to the east (so far the UKMET model has done pretty good with this system). Upper level southwesterly wind shear, evident on satellite imagery over Belize and western Honduras, has displaced most of the convection to the north and east of the circulation center and the system is barely a tropical storm.
Of course as long as the center remains over water, convection could refire, but with increasing upper southwesterly shear and the convection currently displaced, it is unlikely that the system will move to the northeast since steering will be influenced by a weak westerly low level flow.
Gamma should continue to move to the east (and maybe even east southeast) before the strong front and associated upper level trough finally capture and assimilate whatever remains of Gamma. Ahead of the front, the displaced convection will bring showers to Cuba and perhaps South Florida, but thats all that I'd anticipate. ED
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Gamma Weakens and Drifts East
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