HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Delta... why not?
Tue Nov 22 2005 02:26 PM
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Have you ever watched one of those B-horror flicks where the monster/evil thing keeps getting supposedly done in, but returns a scene or two later no matter how dead it's supposed to be?
Don't you start wondering when the danged thing will just quit trying and wait until the sequel? Well, for those of you watching the 2005 hurricane season, you're probably starting to feel that way about how things are going.
Right now the system being tracked as invest 95L south of the Azores is, as the NHC puts it, 'acquring tropical characteristics'. The satellite analysis algorithms used by NRL and SSD think it's a sort of tropical cyclone, as NRL has it rated as a 40kt gale center with a 988mb central pressure... and SSD has it rated subtropical 2.5, or roughly a 35-40kt hybrid tropical cyclone. The 1:05 PM EST tropical discussion issued by the NHC notes it as a special feature 985mb low, as part of an occluded frontal system... the language says that it's acquiring tropical characteristics and could become a tropical storm at any time.
Last night Clark passed along that numerous global weather models are analyzing it as warm core. During the late season occasionally cut-off lows that occlude in the subtropics will go through the usual process that it's species of low does... after occlusion they will slowly acquire a warm core, and the convective processes that a tropical system usually needs will be sustained by the relative difference to their environment... even if the sea surface temperatures are running below that normal 27C/80F threshold usually considered necessary.
Forecast models take this low southward, stall it, and give it a variety of eccentric paths from there by the weekend as the big blocking high to the north (upstream of the deep trough currently in the Eastern U.S.) keeps it more or less in the middle of nowhere. Based on the current appearance it is quite likely that the NHC will upgrade the system to Subtropical or Tropical Storm Delta this evening... so if it follows one of the various forecast paths and lingers as projected, this system could be wandering around past Turkey Day.
Elsewhere there are a couple of convective complexes in the Caribbean.
Gamma's remnants have slid south along the coast of Nicaragua, while a small low pressure north of Panama is firing a little bit of convection. Upper winds are not supportive in the area.. but you guessed it.. may become favorable for development around the end of the week, if anything lingers. There's a small disturbance/wind shift line south of Puerto Rico, but conditions there are also generally unfavorable.
I've put up an early 2006 season forecast thread in the forum. It's just for fun... take your best shot at how active the coming hurricane season will be, based on what little we can tell about next year from here. In May we'll do an update where we can all make better stabs at it.
Alrighty, y'all have a good one.
HF 1926z22november
Edited by MikeC (Tue Nov 22 2005 02:55 PM)
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