Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995


New Article: CSU releases 2026 season numbers, slightly below average. https://flhurricane.com
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 568 (Milton), US Major: 568 (Milton), FL Any: 568 (Milton), FL Major: 568 (Milton)
FlHurricane Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracking 🌀 Since 1995
None
HypeScale:
0.10
0510
Communication
Storm Data
Content
Follow & Connect
Facebook   Twitter/X 🌎 National Hurricane Center
Login to remove ads
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2006 Storm Forum
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

Random Chaos.
Unregistered




Re: 2005 Forecast model performance
      Tue Feb 14 2006 07:14 PM

Ah, a statistics question!

Best is relative:

1. Is the model that got 5 storms perfect but missed the remaining 20 storms by over 500nm to the south the best?
2. Is the model that never got one right but got half right by being off exactly 300nm north and the other half exactly 300nm south best?

The first one you had 5 right, but the average is skewed way south so you're likely to get bad predictions southward with the storm, thus it is inaccurate.

The 2nd one you know you are always in the envelope, and by manipulating statistics, you can even say that, "the model predicted the average path of every storm correctly," becuase (300N + 300S)/2 = (0N)/2 = 0nm off.

---

Now, on to the opinions

GFDL, when it was correct, was very correct. When it was wrong, it was very wrong. It was more often correct than wrong. GFS and NOGAPS were ok, not great, but not bad. BAM was often really bad, but occasionally correct (usually when GFDL was wrong). CMC was erratic - sometimes right sometimes wrong and no commonality when.

That's my observations. Anyone have anything official?



Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Feb 16 2006 10:00 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2005 Forecast model performance Tak Tue Feb 14 2006 07:14 PM
. * * Re: 2005 Forecast model performance Sarasota3G   Wed Mar 01 2006 09:01 PM
. * * Re: 2005 Forecast model performance Tak   Thu Mar 02 2006 05:20 PM
. * * Re: 2005 Forecast model performance Random Chaos.   Tue Feb 14 2006 07:14 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 5654

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
G