A broad area of low pressure centered near 18.5N 85.5W at 10/03Z has developed in the western Caribbean along an old late season front. The system is drifting slowly northward and has some potential for additional development in the next 36 hours.
Movement should be generally north, then northeast, but organization, if any, will be limited to Tropical Depression status on Saturday with a slim chance for Tropical Storm strength on Sunday and/or Monday. The latest ETA jetstream prognosis moves a very disorganized system across the Florida peninsula early next week, and that forecast seems realistic.
The system will encounter increasing westerly shear as it moves north of 24N and this will limit any significant development. Even if the system doesn't develop, the tropical rains would be a much welcomed event in most of Florida. ED
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Potential Development Area - Western Caribbean
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