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News Talkback >> 2006 Storm Forum

Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: Beryl Now
      Tue Jul 18 2006 11:06 PM

It really has been attached to a frontal zone the whole time, just not as much as yesterday's feature. It's a subtle designation, though. The approaching upper low from the east will probably start to shear Beryl tomorrow; today, it was just far enough away from the storm to provide a diffluent environment aloft on the eastern side, promoting convective development. Couple that with the approaching shortwave from the NW and Beryl is really between a rock and a hard place.

There's the potential to see a weak vort max form over the Ohio River valley over the next 12hr and swing toward the storm. I don't think this one is want for land; if it gets there, it'll be a weak non-convective vortex steered by the low level flow. Most likely scenario: Beryl gets caught up in the westerlies in the next day or two and heads out to sea. Second-most likely scenario (and not very likely at that): binary interaction with the upper-low to its SE, with the two pivoting around each other. Beryl is accompanied by a mid-level circulation of dubious nature, so it should be deep enough to feel the effects of either feature.

Intensity, as such, should be held in check...NHC on the high end of things with 50kt, I think, for the time being. That intensity is possible, though, as (if) it accelerates to the NE and storm-relative shear decreases before SSTs dramatically cool. For now, though, it's something to watch.

Nothing else out there is threatening tonight.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beryl at 5pm? Margie Tue Jul 18 2006 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Beryl at 5pm? bob3d   Tue Jul 18 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Beryl at 5pm? Fletch   Tue Jul 18 2006 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Beryl at 5pm? bob3d   Tue Jul 18 2006 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Beryl at 5pm? harmlc.ath.cx   Tue Jul 18 2006 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Now Storm Cooper   Tue Jul 18 2006 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Now Margie   Tue Jul 18 2006 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Now Clark   Tue Jul 18 2006 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Beryl Now allan   Tue Jul 18 2006 11:06 PM

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