Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Area of Interest - East of Hawaii
Mon Jul 24 2006 10:31 AM
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Hurricane Daniel has now moved west of 140W longitude and into the Central Pacific, so future bulletins on this storm will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center - CPHC - starting with the next bulletin at 24/15Z.
Daniel is expected to slowly weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Thursday, however, the storm is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as it passes through the Islands on Thursday and Friday.
Daniel is currently located well over a thousand miles to the east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and he is moving to the west northwest toward the Islands. A weak portion of the east Pacific ridge is expected to keep Daniel on a track toward the Islands. Southwesterly shear to the west of the Islands is expected to decrease as Daniel approaches. Daniel is currently moving over SSTs near 27C but these sea surface temperatures will decrease to about 25C over the next couple of days so Daniel should weaken to tropical storm intensity. As Daniel approaches the Islands, the SSTs rise slightly again to near 27C. The long-term forecast has Daniel passing along or just north of the north shore of the Big Island of Hawaii, south of Maui, but very near Lanai, and over or just south of Oahu, Kauai and Niihau - still as a tropical storm (although probably a weak one).
On its projected path, heavy rain squalls could be expected on Thursday and Friday, along with high surf along the south beaches of the islands west of the Big Isle. On Oahu, high surf later in the week from 10 to 15 feet (or more) from Diamond Head to Barber's Point (including Waikiki Beach and Ala Moana Beach).
While uncommon, tropical cyclones do hit Hawaii on occasion (Hawaii has experienced two Category IV hurricanes). Usually tropical cyclones threaten Hawaii later in the season (Oct-Nov timeframe) so this one is a bit unusual. As noted earlier on the Main Page, while CFHC has Atlantic Basin storms as its primary interest, we do make an exception whenever a tropical system threatens Hawaii.
Daniel is still a long way from Hawaii, however, his progress is certainly something to watch during the week. I wouldn't cancel any travel plans to Hawaii based on the storm - at least not yet.
ED
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