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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

Clark
Meteorologist

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Posts: 1710

Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM

Our MM5 has been projecting an easterly course from the outset, not taking it as far west as the other models. As a result, it doesn't enter a region of cooler SSTs and more stable low-level air, allowing for the projected trough to send it more toward the east and thus Baja California. The GFDL tends to keep storms too strong over such conditions -- really in most cases -- and also likely keeps it stronger than the other models and thus more likely to be turned a bit more toward the northeast. While I think the other models are underdoing the intensity in the first three days, I think they have the right idea for down the line. Ileana is heading just a bit too far west now for a significant threat to be facing Baja California, in my view.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
East Pac Ileana - Potential Coastal Baja threat -	cieldumort	Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM
Re: Rapidly Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - DELETED	Storm Cooper	Tue Aug 22 2006 08:25 PM
Re: Rapidly Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -	cieldumort	Tue Aug 22 2006 08:37 PM
Re: Rapidly Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -	Clark	Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM
Re: Rapidly Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -	cieldumort	Tue Aug 22 2006 11:15 PM
Re: Rapidly Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -	Storm Cooper	Wed Aug 23 2006 05:25 AM
Re: Rapidly Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -	Storm Cooper	Tue Aug 22 2006 08:46 PM
Re: Rapidly Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -	cieldumort	Tue Aug 22 2006 08:51 PM

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