TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.

Folks,
The GFDL trends are converging on a potential that has some chance to be catastrophic for the upper MA and Long Island - potential on this 18z run....even more enhancing of a suggestion for EC threat, which has been emerging. It's time to at least give this a mention. The actual risk is low at this time, but given to what is at stake...

Deep layer steering is expect to halt the N tug we have seen from TD#6 today, as the mid latitude trough between 40 and 55W lifts out.

Most operational global models and the majority of the GFS ensembles argue for ridge eruption replacing this trough and adjacent areas with rising heights and attending surface pressure pattern. This is supported by -NAO differentiating toward positive values this week, which "should" signal a pressure rise and ridge type blocking result...effectively stopping any hope at recurvature.

Nothing is absolute in this game...particularly at these time frames but..., there is multi-guidance, multi-model support for a west turn and the eventuality of:
1) Blocking preventing recurvature
2) +NAO teleconnector of troughing emerging over or near the longitude of the E cordillera, which would impose a deep layer southerly steering component up-down the length the EC. This in tandem with a +NAO ridge near 45-50N/60W is becoming a bit too much like an analog for other notable EC 'canes of lore for comfort.

This is preliminary threat assessment. 18z GFDL takes this to nearly 140kt borderline super hurricane (Cat 5) by 144 hours. Deep layer favorable shear profiles and lacking earlier season SST processing, combined with attenuation of plaguing SAL all point to "the possibility" that extreme favorable parametrics are coming together for any would be...

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 03 2006 10:09 PM)

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