Interesting SST forecast issued by NCEP yesterday - a complete reversal from earlier forecasts. They now expect El Nino to weaken considerably in February and ENSO to become neutral by March or April. Earlier forecasts had carried a strong El Nino through the Spring - thus one of the major suppressing factors on activity may no longer exist at the start of the season.
Of course next month the outlook could flip-flop again, but if it doesn't, and the upper shear relaxes, we could experience a season that would be quite a bit more active than last year. Cheers, ED