Questions on El Nino - FLHurricane.com

There are certain wintertime weather patterns across North America and the North Atlantic Ocean that have been shown to have some impact on tropical cyclone tracks and formation regions in the summer and fall months, but oftentimes these are based on seasonal activity (rather than specific weather patterns) and only account for about 20-30% of the variability in storm formation and movement at best.

Unfortunately, the best answer is probably thus the one that Ed gave in his edit to your post -- it's pretty early to speculate on weather patterns and storm tracks this far out. That may not stop the media from looking at where the Bermuda High may set up in April and put out some articles saying the East coast is under the gun, but the articles don't really tell you anything but they aren't really correct. The East coast is always under the gun and the location of the Bermuda High in April has a very small impact on one storm's track in July-September.

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