We'll atleast the miami NWS has changed there tune a bit...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 227 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007
.DISCUSSION...BIG DIFFERENCES IN 12Z MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECISION IN GOING CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE RUN. THE GFS NOW HAS A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ACROSS S FLA ON SATURDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE INTO THE BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY. EITHER SCENARIO HAS POPS ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. THIS ANOTHER REASON TO GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THIS SFC LOW, THE NAM HOWEVER SHOWS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BUILDING INTO THE SE GOFMEX WHICH PUSHES THE TROPICAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY INTO THE N ATLANTIC. WITH THE GFS JUST SHOWING THIS LOW IN ITS LATEST RUN, HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THAT IN THE WIND FIELD. SO IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW THIS ALL TRANSPIRES AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP S FLA DEVELOPS. AT ANY RATE, ALL MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND TO ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...
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