Daniel, I was just looking at that system near the Yucatan and through my amateur eyes it sure looks to be developing a nice upper level outflow around the system. On the current satellite it looks very tropical except for a lack of easily seen spin. Those upper level clouds, though, look very similar to what you would see over a nicely formed tropical storm or weak hurricane, especially on the north side....or am I crazy? I don't want to be accused of rumor-mongering, but it looks WAY more interesting than any of the models are suggesting it should look. Also pressures seem to be falling at the two buoys in that are of the Caribbean (PTDY on both is a -0.03). Last night and earlier today, I would have said it was moving mostly wnw toward Nicaragua/Honduras, but in the last several hours it looks more due northwest and it has some solid convection from the north side to the south east. IS this something we should be watching more closely? One thing I have learned from this MB is that I don't know as much as I thought I did about monitoring tropical systems.
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